Future projection of climate extremes in Bangladesh Insights from CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble
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Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering(CEE), Islamic University of Technology Gazipur-1704, Bangladesh
Abstract
Bangladesh is increasingly vulnerable to extreme climate events, which are
significant threats to the environmental and social resilience. This study investigates
future changes in climate extreme indices over Bangladesh (including temperature
and precipitation extremes) based on ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change
Detection and Indices) indices. For the assessment of future temperature and
precipitation extremes, a Multi-Model Ensemble approach was carried out for 18
bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Projections were made for near future
(2015–2044), mid future (2045–2074), and far future (2075–2100) scenarios,
following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-2. 6, SSP2-4. 5, and
SSP5-8. 5 (bias-corrected) and validated against the fifth generation of ECMWF
Re-Analysis (ERA5). A comparison with a historical baseline period (1985–2014)
revealed substantial regional disparities in projected climate extremes. By
integrating these advanced tools, the research aims to provide a spatially and
temporally detailed assessment of future climate extremes, contributing valuable
insights to support evidence-based adaptation planning and policy formulation for
enhancing climate resilience in Bangladesh. Specially under SSP5-8.5, the results
suggest that the period 2075-2100 is expected to experience the highest
precipitation and temperature extremes, with an annual maximum temperature
(TXx) increase of 5.12°C and an annual minimum temperature (TNn) of 5.49°C.
The southwestern region is projected to experience relatively fewer extreme
temperature events than other areas, with the most significant warming occurring
in the south-to-southeast corridor rather than the lower part of Bangladesh in all
future scenarios. Warm spells, like Summer Days (SU), are expected to rise even
more up to 84 days with more influence the northeastern region in the very far
future. Under all SSPs, Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) are anticipated to reduce
substantially, particularly in the north to northwestern part of Bangladesh, due to a
pronounced increase in annual total precipitation percentage in the northwest.
However, very heavy precipitation days (R20 mm) are projected to increase in the
north to northeast, up to approximately 18 days under SSP5-8.5. This study reveals
significant spatial differences in temperature and precipitation extreme indices, with
a forecasted rise in both the strength and frequency of climate extremes over time.
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These insights highlight significant requirements for the development of focused
adaptation strategies to enhance resilience in regions vulnerable to emerging
climate risks in Bangladesh. The findings emphasize the necessity for climate
adaptation policies, including improved flood management, heat adaptation
strategies, and climate-resilient agricultural practices. Future research should focus
on refining climate model projections and integrating socio-economic factors to
develop comprehensive adaptation strategies for Bangladesh’s most vulnerable
regions.
Description
Supervised by
Dr. Md. Rezaul Karim,
Professor,
Co-supervised by
Dr. Mohammad Kamruzzaman
Senior Scientific Officer,
Farm Machinery and Postharvest Technology Division,
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
Islamic University of Technology(IUT),
Board Bazar, gazipur-1704. Bangladesh.
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Citation
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